http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2010/07/08/97001-20100708FILWWW00318-c...

Cannabis légalisé, ventes doublées?
AFP
08/07/2010 | Mise à jour : 08:12 Réactions (28)
Si la Californie légalise la marijuana, comme le suggèrent deux propositions de loi, le prix du cannabis va chuter de 80% et sa consommation va doubler dans cet Etat, estime une étude américaine publiée hier. "D'après une analyse basée sur les coûts de production connus et des enquêtes sur les prix actuels de la marijuana, les chercheurs suggèrent que le prix au détail non taxé d'un cannabis de haute qualité pourrait tomber à 38 dollars l'once (28 grammes) contre 375 dollars aujourd'hui", affirme l'institut d'études Rand Corporation.

Même dans le cas d'une marijuana taxée à 50 dollars l'once, les chercheurs "n'excluent pas que la consommation augmente de 50% à 100%, voire plus". Si l'usage de la marijuana doublait en Californie, cet Etat reviendrait à ses taux record de consommation du cannabis des années 70, affirme encore l'étude. En 2008, 6,1% de la population des plus de 12 ans affirmaient avoir fumé de la marijuana le mois précédent contre 13,2% en 1979.

Deux propositions de loi sont actuellement sur la table en Californie. Un projet déposé par le parlementaire démocrate de San Francisco Tom Ammiano propose de légaliser la possession, la vente et la culture pour les plus de 21 ans, sous la houlette du ministère du contrôle des boissons alcoolisées de l'Etat. Une taxe de 50 dollars l'once serait imposée.

Une autre initiative légaliserait la possession, le partage et la culture de marijuana sur une surface de 2,25 mètres carrés maximum pour les plus de 21 ans. Les villes et les comtés seraient chargés de la taxer. "Aucun gouvernement n'a légalisé la production et la distribution de marijuana pour l'usage du public, aussi existe-t-il peu de précédent pour savoir comment cela se passerait en Californie", a souligné Beau Kilmer, responsable de l'étude, en citant comme seules expériences de légalisation au sens large les Pays-Bas et plusieurs régions d'Australie. "Aucun de ces pays n'a légalisé la culture commerciale du cannabis à une large échelle comme l'envisage la Californie", souligne encore l'étude.

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http://laist.com/2010/07/07/if_marijuana_was_legalized_prices_w.php

If Marijuana was Legalized, Prices Would 'Dramatically Drop,' Finds Report

One ounce of marijuana today is $375. If Californians vote for Prop 19 or if the state legislature and Governor approve AB 2254, the price could drop to $38 per ounce, says the RAND Corporation in a study released today. Called Altered State? Assessing How Marijuana Legalization in California Could Influence Marijuana Consumption and Public Budgets, the report examines the likely increase in usage, how much tax revenue could be generated and other issues.

One issue especially may be highly debated over the coming months. It's often said that legalizing marijuana will free the state from enforcing the drug. But RAND "estimates that the cost of enforcing the current laws probably totals less than $300 million." Whether that's true or not, it could become a focal point of the opposition.

Other findings incude the increase of usage, which could be 50 to 100% more than now, matching the 1970s. Despite that increase, researchers feel tax revenues will not blow away the charts.

“A fixed excise tax per ounce may give producers and users an incentive to shift to smaller quantities of higher-potency forms of marijuana,” said study co-author Jonathan P. Caulkins of Carnegie Mellon University. He said that kind of shift would be one factor that could lower revenues collected from marijuana taxes.

Even at current estimates, legalizing and taxing marijuana would not fix the state budget. That sort of notion is "offensively false" to Mark Kleiman, a UCLA Professor of Public Policy who said that on KPCC's Air Talk on Monday. Marijuana would bring in $1.4 billion to the state, according to a state analysis. That amount helps, but wouldn't fix the nearly $20 billion budget gap the state currently faces.

But one thing studies haven't addressed yet is the effect of tourism. How much of the country would flock to California to enjoy a legal smoke?

By Zach Behrens in News on July 7, 2010 11:25 AM

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http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP315/?ref=homepage&key=t_mar...

Altered State?
Assessing How Marijuana Legalization in California Could Influence Marijuana Consumption and Public Budgets

By: Beau Kilmer, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Robert J. MacCoun, Peter H. Reuter

To learn more about the possible outcomes of marijuana legalization in California, RAND researchers constructed a model based on a series of estimates of current consumption, current and future prices, how responsive use is to price changes, taxes levied and possibly evaded, and the aggregation of nonprice effects (such as a change in stigma).

Key findings include the following:

(1) The pretax retail price of marijuana will substantially decline, likely by more than 80 percent. The price the consumers face will depend heavily on taxes, the structure of the regulatory regime, and how taxes and regulations are enforced.

(2) Consumption will increase, but it is unclear how much because we know neither the shape of the demand curve nor the level of tax evasion (which reduces revenues and prices that consumers face).

(3) Tax revenues could be dramatically lower or higher than $1.4 billion; for example, uncertainty surrounds potential tax revenues California might derive from taxing marijuana used by residents of other states (e.g., from “drug tourism”).

(4) Previous studies find that the annual costs of enforcing marijuana laws in California range from around $200 million to nearly $1.9 billion; our estimates show that the costs are probably less than $300 million.

(5) There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of legalizing marijuana in California on public budgets and consumption, with even minor changes in assumptions leading to major differences in outcomes.

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Contents
Chapter One:
Introduction

Chapter Two:
The Marijuana Landscape in California

Chapter Three:
How to Project the Effects of Marijuana Legalization

Chapter Four:
Projections with a $50-per-Ounce Tax

Chapter Five:
Assessing the Projections

Chapter Six:
Considering Alternative Scenarios

Chapter Seven:
Concluding Comments

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